Second season syndrome is a real fear for a promoted side, and we've lived through it before. Bielsa's first season back in the Premier League was one of the best this club has produced in a generation, but the second was a different story, a difficult start, a sacking in February, and a relegation fight we only just survived. The season after that, under three different managers, we went down anyway. That history is why there's always trepidation heading into year two, even after a first season that went really quite well.
Good form in the second half of last season and a decent summer had Leeds fans among the most content going into the opening weekend this time round. A win, followed by two draws, and then victory over Newcastle on Monday night has us third. Four games in, we can start putting some real numbers against that lingering doubt rather than just wondering about it.
Let's take a look at the four opponents we've already faced this season and set them against the same four fixtures from last season. Forest away was a 1-3 defeat last season. This time we won it 1-0. Brighton away was a 3-0 hammering last season. This time we came away with a point in a 1-1 draw. Brentford at home was a 0-0 stalemate both times, though last season's version had nothing in it and this season it felt like a game we were the better side in. Newcastle at home went from a blank 0-0 to a 4-1 win that was as good a home performance as we've produced in the Premier League.
Add it up and it's eight points from those four games this season against two points from the same four fixtures last season. Goal difference has gone from minus five to plus four. The two results that actually hurt last season, Forest and Brighton, have both been turned around. It feels like these are exactly the kind of games that will matter this season. Last season it wasn't the big six that concerned us, it was a failure to pick up points from those just above us that was most frustrating, the games where dropped points do the real damage over a season rather than the odd chastening defeat to Arsenal.
If last season's problem was picking up points against that bracket of clubs, we have some early evidence that we are already improving in that regard this season. Arsenal and Manchester City already look like the two clear title contenders, and there's already a set of clubs drifting off at the bottom of the table. The middle of the pack is where it will matter for Leeds this season, with European places up for grabs, and the early signs are that we're putting ourselves in a good position. Sure, injuries to key players could derail our form but for now we are doing what we need to do to reach 40 points and start looking up.
It's not just these four games that give us hope either. Take the table back over the last 29 league games, running through the back end of last season into this one, and we're still up in fifth. That's the form of a side that's been playing at a top half level for the best part of a year, not just a side on a hot run. Forest, Brentford, Brighton and Newcastle are one slice of the fixture list, and the next stretch brings Palace, Arsenal, Manchester United and Sunderland, a proper mixed bag that will tell us more again.
But on the evidence so far, it looks like Daniel Farke's team have kicked on. An improvement of six points on the same fixtures last season is a more than encouraging start.
