The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Wednesday 9th September) - Wilson’s slow start explained and why he'll come good

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Ellandback1
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Breakfast Debate The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Wednesday 9th September) - Wilson’s slow start explained and why he'll come good

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Good Morning. It's Wednesday 9th September, and here are the latest headlines from Elland Road...

Wilson’s slow start explained and why he'll come good

Leeds Live’s Isaac Johnson has put Harry Wilson’s opening weeks under the microscope, and the conclusion is fair enough. The free-agent signing has not hit top gear. That does not make the signing a mistake. Wilson’s absence from the last two Premier League starting XIs is not what supporters expected when he became Leeds United’s first summer arrival. Ten goals and seven assists for Fulham last season, a career best, made winning the race for him feel like a statement, particularly after last year’s deadline-day let-down. It still should. A few muted displays do not recast a player. A few sparkling ones would not have made him undroppable either. There is even a positive in the benchings. They show the squad is deeper and that shirts have to be earned. Wilson was brought in to lift that standard, not to be guaranteed a place. The job is not the one he had at Craven Cottage. Wilson can play as an attacking midfielder, but for four seasons Fulham used him chiefly as a right winger.

Pre-season showed the lag; the last pass and the shot arriving a beat late while he learned new teammates and Farke’s patterns. Nottingham Forest away remains his cleanest league night. An offside flag chalked off a well-taken finish after a sharp run. He had two other touches in the box, completed all three long balls and won more duels than he lost. Even so, Leeds have still not seen the version that lit up the Premier League last year. The raw numbers are kinder than the mood around him. Pass completion is 88.6 per cent. Balls in the opposition half are landing at 69.2 per cent. In 45 minutes against Brentford he completed all seven of his passes into the final third, the best return of anyone with four or more attempts. At Forest, four of five attempts found a teammate. Brighton was the poorest cameo and still produced the pass for Lukas Nmecha’s late drive. It was also the clip that fed the doubt: 17 minutes, eight touches, two of them a kick-off and a corner, four duels lost from four.

Expected assists of 0.07 and one successful cross from seven explain the frustration. His passes have been tidy, but they are not yet the ones that open up defences. His own xG is 0.1, which speaks to both the service and a player still not arriving in scoring positions. After 135 Premier League minutes across three games - two of them from the bench, that is not a verdict! It is a sample. Wilson was used as a substitute only four times in the whole of last season. He is already halfway there. Coming on mid-game is a habit he has barely needed. He has said Farke’s training load reminded him of his brief spell under Jürgen Klopp at Liverpool. Adjusting to that intensity was never going to take a few weeks. Farke’s pre-season view still holds. Wilson is sharp and experienced, so he should settle faster than most, but the role and the style are different, and the club still expects him to shine. He cost nothing, whatever comes next, Leeds are not out of pocket.




Has Tanaka forced his way back into Farke’s plans

Ao Tanaka’s display at the Amex was a genuine statement. First Premier League start of the season, assist for Bogle, a volley that hit the bar, another that VAR ruled out, and 63% of the fan vote for player of the match. That is the version of him Leeds have been waiting for. Daniel Farke has already said he will rotate to integrate new signings and keep the side “difficult to predict.” The majority of predicted XI's have Sean Longstaff starting alongside Ampadu in midfield, with Tanaka either on the bench or left out. Typical projected midfield: Ampadu and Longstaff, with Wilson and Aaronson ahead of them. Tanaka is not being written off, he is simply the most likely candidate to be rested after a full 73 minutes on Saturday and with a Premier League game four days later.

A start tonight is possible if Farke wants to reward Saturday’s performance or keep the same midfield three that worked well at Brighton (Tanaka–Stach–Ampadu). Most reporters, however, expect Longstaff to get the nod. Mondays game at Elland Road vs Newcastle Utd is the more important fixture for Tanaka’s immediate future. Farke will almost certainly revert to a stronger side. After the Brighton showing, Tanaka has put himself firmly in the conversation to start. If he is unused or only used as a substitute tonight, the chances of him lining up against Newcastle rise further. BBC’s verdict after the Amex was blunt: if he keeps playing like that, he becomes “impossible to drop.”

Can this be the springboard? Yes, provided the physical side holds up. The old criticisms (lightweight, not Premier League quality) were about consistency and duels, not talent. Saturday he won his battles, kept the ball moving, and created. One good game does not rewrite the narrative, but it gives Farke a reason to pick him again and gives Tanaka the confidence to play with the same aggression. The next two matches, a cup rotation night and then a home league game will tell us whether this was a one-off or the start of him locking down a regular starting place.




Could Farke turn Harry Wilson into Leeds’ first true No.10 since Rutter?

Leeds have handed Harry Wilson the No.10 shirt. The question now is whether Daniel Farke is ready to hand him the job that goes with it. Since Georginio Rutter left for Brighton, Leeds have not had a proper playmaker in the middle of the pitch. Before Rutter, you have to go back to Pablo Hernández: the last man who regularly took the ball between the lines, slowed the game down and picked the pass that opened a defence. Brenden Aaronson has been asked to fill the space. So have hybrids and wide forwards in a 3-4-2-1, none have been overly effective. The Welsh international has occupied the No.10 role before. The last four seasons at Fulham have just hidden it. Marco Silva used him as an inverted right winger - cut inside, shoot, combine, not as the central creator, which is the version Leeds have seen in glimpses so far.

He is a top professional, and the club are happy with him. That is the language of a manager still deciding where the player fits, not of one who has already nailed him to the touchline.In a 3-4-2-1 Wilson can be the right-sided 10, drifting inside onto his left foot while Bogle holds the width. In a 4-2-3-1 he can play as the classic 10, with wingers stretching the pitch and Calvert-Lewin occupying the centre-backs. Farke has used both shapes. Before Chelsea he said he wants Leeds to be “difficult to predict and tactical.” A central Wilson would be a new look.The shirt is not an accident either. Wilson wore 17 in pre-season; when Joel Piroe left for West Ham, the No.10 went to Wilson. That is not to say players always play up to the number on their back. Sometimes, though, the number is a hint.




Harry Wilson, Ao Tanaka
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Wednesday 9th September) - Wilson’s slow start explained and why he'll come good

Post by CUSSIE01 »

Not particularly worried about Harry’s form as it’ll take him time to settle but he’ll come good through time.
I’m more excited about Tanaka after Saturday’s game, if he can cut out the odd silly mistake in possession & have some belief in himself then he could be like a new signing, there’s a fantastic player in there if he can just take that next step up.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Wednesday 9th September) - Wilson’s slow start explained and why he'll come good

Post by Ellandback1 »

I'd love to see a proper 10. It will be interesting to see whether long term Wilson switches.
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Wednesday 9th September) - Wilson’s slow start explained and why he'll come good

Post by Cjay »

Tanaka has always been our best technical midfielder

The issue was he was being asked to come deep, left him more open to risk.

Vs Brighton he was higher up and that's where his technical ability and intelligence shines.

Wilson is a long term Farke target probably better suited to Ploddyball.

He suits a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 best.

He can play as a second striker or as 1 of 2 tens in the system we use now issue is he lacks pace and the traditional open play creativity you associate with it.

The vast majority of his creativity comes from set pieces.

I think he will have a role to play but my expectations aren't high, we signed him off the back of a season where everything went his way
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Re: The #LUFC Breakfast Debate (Wednesday 9th September) - Wilson’s slow start explained and why he'll come good

Post by AcrossThePondAsh »

There’s another reason I’m inclined to be patient with Wilson that goes beyond simply giving him time. Last season his 10 league goals came from only 5.83 xG, the third biggest xG overperformance in the Premier League. That was clearly an outlier, albeit a very positive one, so expecting him to reproduce that level of finishing would probably be asking too much.

There’s some history behind it, though. He put up 17 goal contributions last season at 0.57 per 90, and his shot conversion has improved across each of his last four Premier League seasons, from 10% to 13.95% and then 17.24% last season. Even allowing for some regression toward the mean, there’s evidence that he’s become a more efficient finisher over time.

For me that makes 135 league minutes at Leeds far too small a sample to learn much from, particularly when he’s had only one shot so far. I’d be more concerned if he were getting his normal volume of opportunities and repeatedly wasting them. Right now he’s barely had the opportunity to demonstrate the thing he’s historically been unusually good at.
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