We aren't the flat track bullies

[weasel]

Some of you may recall a thread I started a few months back about Southampton being flat track bullies and basically pointing out how their great run had been schewed by facing only 6 top half teams in their 25 match unbeaten run (they drew 4 of those 6 matches against the better opposition). I also pointed out that Ipswich's bad run had seen them play a lot of matches against the better sides during that run. So consulting my spreadsheet today I noticed some very interesting results.

Our points per game against top half teams is 2.05. This is comfortably better than Leicester (1.77), Ipswich (1.64) and the flat track bullies Southampton (1.38).

The trouble for us this season would appear to not be our ability to perform in the big matches but against the lesser lights. Our points per game against the bottom half teams is amazingly worse than what we got against the top half teams - just 1.96, compared to the 2.05 points we achieved against top half teams. Contrast that to the other 'big 4' sides and Leicester smashed the bottom half teams, averaging 2.52 points per games, Ipswich did similar 2.48 per game and Southampton managed 2.29.

Where we lost out this season was our failings against teams that presumably set their stall out to take a point (with the hope they could frustrate us and then nick all 3). Our recent run of poor form followed the pattern as we took 6 points from 3 matches against top half teams but struggled with taking just 2 points from 4 matches against bottom half sides.

Given the above the hope would be that we are more suited to doing well in the play-offs than the other teams.

[Kennyb41]

Some of you may recall a thread I started a few months back about Southampton being flat track bullies and basically pointing out how their great run had been schewed by facing only 6 top half teams in their 25 match unbeaten run (they drew 4 of those 6 matches against the better opposition). I also pointed out that Ipswich's bad run had seen them play a lot of matches against the better sides during that run. So consulting my spreadsheet today I noticed some very interesting results.

Our points per game against top half teams is 2.05. This is comfortably better than Leicester (1.77), Ipswich (1.64) and the flat track bullies Southampton (1.38).

The trouble for us this season would appear to not be our ability to perform in the big matches but against the lesser lights. Our points per game against the bottom half teams is amazingly worse than what we got against the top half teams - just 1.96, compared to the 2.05 points we achieved against top half teams. Contrast that to the other 'big 4' sides and Leicester smashed the bottom half teams, averaging 2.52 points per games, Ipswich did similar 2.48 per game and Southampton managed 2.29.

Where we lost out this season was our failings against teams that presumably set their stall out to take a point (with the hope they could frustrate us and then nick all 3). Our recent run of poor form followed the pattern as we took 6 points from 3 matches against top half teams but struggled with taking just 2 points from 4 matches against bottom half sides.

Given the above the hope would be that we are more suited to doing well in the play-offs than the other teams.

That's exactly what they did Weasel, i've been smashin teles all season at our mainly away form against teams blocking up, it's where i have my biggest gripe with DF.

The Chelsea game showed us he can go toe to toe with his simple attacking tactics and why i feel he could hold his own in the Prem whilst he builds, he can beat the EFC's etc.

But our players and not DF came unstuck against teams with a line of 5 or 6 across the defence, we don't have much quality individual brilliance, I watched Ipswich v Coventry, and they just get the ball forward asap into the oppos final third and take it from there that their players are better than Coventrys defence and flood forward fast. He persevered way too much with slow build up trying to drag the oppos out to play, and all the time, they just weren't having it.

It allowed them to just get organised when we had the ball, an absolute piece of piss to defend against, i feel he got this ALL wrong, and it affected our players minds as well by not playing with natural instinct and overthinking, they just didn't get it at all. Where as Ipswich as soon as they noticed some of the Coventry players up field, just pumped it forward, sometimes 'hoofball' but with a mission to over populate up front with their LB and RB.

There's no getting away from the Int break f**king us up big style, and i don't blame DF one bit for any player rotation issues, coz there are none as far as i'm concerned, he has done well ALL season managing his players, but that break combined with illness and operations fcked him.

Like i said my biggest gripe, and if i could've had just one convo with him, it would've been :

" DF, it's not working ffs, they are not falling for this slow build up knocking it about shite, they know what you're trying to do, they're just getting organised, you're not playing to our strengths at all, and you are levelling the playing field for them, you knobhead"

[Kennyb41]

Oh btw, i'll just add to that above, that - I don't want him sacked *

He has a lot of credit in the bank still.

[danhirons]

bodes well for the playoffs at least!

[weasel]

bodes well for the playoffs at least!

It does although the worry is that WBA basically mirrored the lesser team's approach against us and had success against us. Southampton is the unknown as we saw when Leicester went at us that they created good chances and Southampton are probably more clinical than we are so going toe to toe v them might be suicidal - for all we lost 3-1 to them earlier in the season we had more shots than them. Norwich out of the play-off sides would in theory be our best match up given that we have gne toe to toe with them twice and come out on top both times.

The bizarre thing, when it comes to us getting the better of teams that defend en mass, is that at home we have picked up 2.42 points per games against bottom half sides (and 2.40 against top half). You would expect that we'd have done worse at home where it would be more likely that the opposition teams would come and park the bus. This sort of shows that the tactics have fairly much worked against the low block sides when they came to ER (9 wins 2 draws and 1 loss v bottom half sides at ER).

Our only real failing this season is our away matches against lower half teams. We have picked up 1.5 points per match away to lower half sides (despite us managing 1.73 points per match against top half teams away from home which is comfortably better than our top 4 rivals). As a comparison away from home against bottom half teams Saints picked up 2.25 per match and Ipswich and Leicester both achieved 2.33 per match - which equates to Saints getting 9 more points away from home v bottom half teams than we did and Leicester and Ipswich getting 10.

Thankfully we do not have to play any away matches against bottom half teams in the play-offs.

What it does point to is that Farke's tactis, for the main part, have worked against better teams. If we do go up I don't think a top 4 finish in the prem is beyond us!!!!

[Cjay]

Our record vs our playoff rivals is

Played 6
Won 2
Lost 3
Drawn 1.
1.16ppg

Southampton.
Played 6
4 wins
2 draws.
2.33

What's done for Southampton was the performances vs Leicester and Ipswich they actually have a slightly better record vs the rest of the top half than we do.

And worryingly for us far far better vs our playoff rivals where we've really struggled.

[weasel]

Our record vs our playoff rivals is

Played 6
Won 2
Lost 3
Drawn 1.
1.16ppg

Southampton.
Played 6
4 wins
2 draws.
2.33

What's done for Southampton was the performances vs Leicester and Ipswich they actually have a slightly better record vs the rest of the top half than we do.

And worryingly for us far far better vs our playoff rivals where we've really struggled.

Yes but we don't have to play all 3 of them.

So the most we can play is against 2 teams so our record is either

Played 4, won 2, lost 2

or

Played 4, won 2, drawn 1, lost 1


Last time in the play offs and against the 3 opponents our record was
Pl 6, W4, D1, L1 and we went out at the first hurdle - agains the team we had done the double over.



Similarly when we lost to Watford in the play-off final we had done the double over them. I don't think results previously against teams counts for much.