Flat track bullies - Southampton

[weasel]

Based on the current league position after 29/30 matches played

Southampton's record against sides in the top half of the table:
Played 12 Won 3 Drawn 5 Lost 4 Points 14 (Points per game 1.167)

And Southampton's record against sides in the bottom half of the table:
Played 17 Won 15 Drawn 2 Lost 0 Points 47 (Points per game 2.765)


Our record v top half: Played 15 Won 8 Drawn 3 Lost 4 (PPG 1.8)
Our record v bottom half: Played 15 Won 10 Drawn 3 Lost 2 (PPG 2.2)

If these records were to continue we would finish on 92.4 pts and Southampton would finish on 92.025

However:

Ipswich v Top half: PL15 W8 D3 L4 Pts27 (PPG 1.8)
Ipswich v Bottom Half: PL14 W9 D5 L0 Pts32 (PPG 2.286)

Ipswich would finish on 94.457 points and seal the 2nd spot.

[weasel]

[weasel]

Thoughts Cjay?

[Cjay]

Thoughts Cjay?

None whatsoever

[JoeDenver]

Weasel, great analysis!

Hopefully we’ve figured out the low and mid block issues that we have faced against lower sides and so hopefully that record improves. I think Ipswich are going to struggle to retain the same form.

And I badly want to return the favor to Southampton at Elland Road…having to wait until the last game of the season is for me like having to wait until Christmas morning to open presents.

[weasel]

Weasel, great analysis!

Hopefully we’ve figured out the low and mid block issues that we have faced against lower sides and so hopefully that record improves. I think Ipswich are going to struggle to retain the same form.

And I badly want to return the favor to Southampton at Elland Road…having to wait until the last game of the season is for me like having to wait until Christmas morning to open presents.

It is very interesting to see the huge difference in Southampton's results when split in comparison to ours and Ipswich's which are nearly identical. Of course with the championship team placings can quickly change but it does put Southampton's run into a bit more perspective. If we can improve against the bottom half sides and Southampton don't improve against the top half it could certainly sway things our way.

[danhirons]

difficult to read much into that

saints lost four on the bounce at the start of the season which accounts for a lot of their poor results against the top half, since then they've not lost a game!

[The Subhuman]

difficult to read much into that

saints lost four on the bounce at the start of the season which accounts for a lot of their poor results against the top half, since then they've not lost a game!

And we had all the pre and early season issues that account for our poor results against the bottom teams

[1964white]

Interesting graph, Weasel.

So, the Saints haven't lost one game to a club who are 13th to 24th in the championship.

Ipswich better them, not losing to any team 11th or below.

[1964white]

Southampton conceded 20 goals in their first 9 matches

Leeds conceded 10 in our first 9 games

Since those opening 9 matches

Saints conceded 12 in 20 games.

Leeds conceded 16 in 21 games.

Excellent defensive record for both clubs

[Madron]

The vital difference comes in the Away games still to play.

Saints still to play 4 from top 5 (4 toughest games of the season probs)- We 've played all top 6 away.
We play 3 of bottom 4 AWAY- Saints have played all bottom 5.

Our advantage is Massive.

[danhirons]

And we had all the pre and early season issues that account for our poor results against the bottom teams

very true! had forgotten about that, if only we'd got things sorted a little quicker...!

[Finnatic]

very true! had forgotten about that, if only we'd got things sorted a little quicker...!

We couldn’t because the EFL dragged their heels with DF’s and 49ers paperwork / due diligence - also we hadn’t a clue who was going to jump ship either.

[weasel]

Interesting to see that once again this weekend Ipswich have a tough game (WBA at home) whereas Southampton have another, on paper, easy home game against a bottom half team in Huddersfield. Certainly seems a bizarre quirk that Southampton have had a lengthy run of fixtures v bottom half team whereas Ipswich seem to be getting tough game after tough game.

Southampton's last 20 matches since playing Leeds

14 matches against bottom half teams of which they have won 12 and drawn 2.
6 matches against the top half teams of which they have won 2 and drawn 4.

Ipswich's last 11 match has seen them play top half teams 9 times.

[Cjay]

https://www.saintsweb.co.uk/topic/60201 ... /#comments

You've made it onto the Southampton forum

[weasel]

https://www.saintsweb.co.uk/topic/60201 ... /#comments

You've made it onto the Southampton forum

Seems they have more thoughts on this than you

[Cjay]

Seems they have more thoughts on this than you

Alright since it's such a well made post and clearly took a lot of effort I will give a thought

On the face of it then yes you can say maybe Southampton are bullies who have struggled when unable to simply beat teams they should.

And it may be something that costs them in the end.

But up until we played Southampton we weren't brilliant either which is now dismissed as a bedding in period and the summer is used as an excuse.

We were better than Southampton but it wasn't perfect of course.

Well Middlesbrough, Leicester, Ipswich, Norwich and Sunderland all fall into that early season period for Southampton as well.

So if we can use the summer as a yeah but excuse then so can they?

Since then I think it's 13 points from 6 games vs current top half teams which is 2.1ppg

We I think are exactly 2ppg, 10 games 20 points

[The Subhuman]

Alright since it's such a well made post and clearly took a lot of effort I will give a thought

On the face of it then yes you can say maybe Southampton are bullies who have struggled when unable to simply beat teams they should.

And it may be something that costs them in the end.

But up until we played Southampton we weren't brilliant either which is now dismissed as a bedding in period and the summer is used as an excuse.

We were better than Southampton but it wasn't perfect of course.

Well Middlesbrough, Leicester, Ipswich, Norwich and Sunderland all fall into that early season period for Southampton as well.

So if we can use the summer as a yeah but excuse then so can they?

Since then I think it's 13 points from 6 games vs current top half teams which is 2.1ppg

We I think are exactly 2ppg, 10 games 20 points

Plus they've added two gamechangers in the Jan window .. so flat track bullies could become just Championship bullies.

[weasel]

Alright since it's such a well made post and clearly took a lot of effort I will give a thought

On the face of it then yes you can say maybe Southampton are bullies who have struggled when unable to simply beat teams they should.

And it may be something that costs them in the end.

But up until we played Southampton we weren't brilliant either which is now dismissed as a bedding in period and the summer is used as an excuse.

We were better than Southampton but it wasn't perfect of course.

Well Middlesbrough, Leicester, Ipswich, Norwich and Sunderland all fall into that early season period for Southampton as well.

So if we can use the summer as a yeah but excuse then so can they?

Since then I think it's 13 points from 6 games vs current top half teams which is 2.1ppg

We I think are exactly 2ppg, 10 games 20 points

I think both sides have a reasonable excuse for a poor start.

I just find it interesting that in Southamptons last 21 matches they have only played 6 matches against top half sides (won 2 drawn 4 for 10 points). Which does suggest that even in their good run they aren't as good v top half sides 1.67 points against top half sides during that time. Of course with them only playing 6 matches during that time it is a small sample size and I made the comparison that Ipswich have faced 9 top half sides in their last 11 matches which has coincided with their poor run.

Of course as my learned colleague points out stats can be rendered totally obsolete by the fact Saints have strengthened their squad.

[Madron]

I think both sides have a reasonable excuse for a poor start.

I just find it interesting that in Southamptons last 21 matches they have only played 6 matches against top half sides (won 2 drawn 4 for 10 points). Which does suggest that even in their good run they aren't as good v top half sides 1.67 points against top half sides during that time. Of course with them only playing 6 matches during that time it is a small sample size and I made the comparison that Ipswich have faced 9 top half sides in their last 11 matches which has coincided with their poor run.

Of course as my learned colleague points out stats can be rendered totally obsolete by the fact Saints have strengthened their squad.

And , they haven't played any of the 'top 3'' in those 6.

Strange how the fixtures have turned out.