USA Elections

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rab_rant
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Re: USA Elections

Post by rab_rant »

In 2016, months of national polls confidently showed Hillary Clinton ahead, and set many Americans up for a shock on Election Night, when the Electoral College tilted decisively in Trump’s favor. Two pollsters who weren’t blindsided by this are Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly. Kapteyn, a Dutch economist who leads the USC’s Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, oversaw the USC/Los Angeles Times poll that gave Trump a 3-point lead heading into election day

In 2020 the National polls are predicting a Biden win yet the independent pollsters are again predicting an upset.

This year, both men believe that polls could again be undercounting Trump’s support. The reason is “shy” Trump voters—people reluctant to share their opinions for fear of being judged. Though the “shy voter” idea is thrown around a lot by both Trump supporters and Democratic skeptics, Kapteyn and Cahaly have specific insights into why, and how, Trump support might be going undetected.

Brexit after all succeeded by targeting a hidden demographic. I wonder if Trump has learnt some lessons from Farage.

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Re: USA Elections

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rab_rant wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 1:07 pm In 2016, months of national polls confidently showed Hillary Clinton ahead, and set many Americans up for a shock on Election Night, when the Electoral College tilted decisively in Trump’s favor. Two pollsters who weren’t blindsided by this are Arie Kapteyn and Robert Cahaly. Kapteyn, a Dutch economist who leads the USC’s Dornsife Center for Economic and Social Research, oversaw the USC/Los Angeles Times poll that gave Trump a 3-point lead heading into election day

In 2020 the National polls are predicting a Biden win yet the independent pollsters are again predicting an upset.

This year, both men believe that polls could again be undercounting Trump’s support. The reason is “shy” Trump voters—people reluctant to share their opinions for fear of being judged. Though the “shy voter” idea is thrown around a lot by both Trump supporters and Democratic skeptics, Kapteyn and Cahaly have specific insights into why, and how, Trump support might be going undetected.

Brexit after all succeeded by targeting a hidden demographic. I wonder if Trump has learnt some lessons from Farage.

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IMO regarding the US never under estimate the power of money, the crooked federal court system, the Mafia and the Russian cyber teams... :-D
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Re: USA Elections

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Smudge3920 wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:51 am :lol: Did not accuse you off anything. I asked you, very different thing... Trump trying to instigate a 3rd term has nothing to do with the 2nd amanedment (Thats about the right to bear arms)Which is a problem in itself. Not sure what the 22 amendment is, will have to look it up... Trump is not on his way, he already is a dictator :lol: ... Why do you think he has stacked the supreme court? Why do you think he is trying to stop mail in voting? and on and on ... defend him if you want to your opinion is as valid as mine, but at least have some kind supportive argument
I am not seeking to defend trump. :Lol:
your arguments are pretty shaky, I said the 22nd amendment relating to the limits on how many terms a person can serve as president.
He hasnt stacked the supreme court, ruth bader Ginsburg died and he replaced her as is his right to do so. Stacking or packing the supreme court refers to what biden may do where he will seek to increase the number of judges on the court to counter balance it, this hasnt been done since 1869. even with the supreme court the president has no power to ammend the constitution he would need 2/3 of Congress to suggest it which won't happen. The American system is set up to prevent dictators so how ever much trump wanted it, even though I dint think he would, he wouldn't be able to do it. It's just scaremongering.

Mail voting is pretty dodgy to be honest it is easily open to fraud anyone can see that but it suits the democrats at the moment to support it.

We are never going to agree but the proof will be in the pudding, biden will be 8 years if he makes it that long of smoke and mirrors just like Obama and leave large swathes of the country a mess again. Hopefully wrong but we shall see.
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Re: USA Elections

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WhiteRose wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:43 pm I am not seeking to defend trump. :Lol:
your arguments are pretty shaky, I said the 22nd amendment relating to the limits on how many terms a person can serve as president.
He hasnt stacked the supreme court, ruth bader Ginsburg died and he replaced her as is his right to do so. Stacking or packing the supreme court refers to what biden may do where he will seek to increase the number of judges on the court to counter balance it, this hasnt been done since 1869. even with the supreme court the president has no power to ammend the constitution he would need 2/3 of Congress to suggest it which won't happen. The American system is set up to prevent dictators so how ever much trump wanted it, even though I dint think he would, he wouldn't be able to do it. It's just scaremongering.

Mail voting is pretty dodgy to be honest it is easily open to fraud anyone can see that but it suits the democrats at the moment to support it.

We are never going to agree but the proof will be in the pudding, biden will be 8 years if he makes it that long of smoke and mirrors just like Obama and leave large swathes of the country a mess again. Hopefully wrong but we shall see.
Thanks for the clarity on the 22nd amendment... I had not had time to look it up yet... As I said the law does not apply to Trump (in his head)... there has never been a President who refuses to peacefully transition of power and accept the vote...Trump has already said he will ...quote ... they can only win if they cheat :lol: And when asked if he will all he says is "we will see"... You are right we will never agree , as it is difficult to debate with someone who only uses soundbites to make the point...
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Re: USA Elections

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11 million on 30sec ad at super bowl aimed at Black men.

https://youtu.be/rUYkKZqQwEI

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Re: USA Elections

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I just have this vision of a swat teams descending on the WH trying remove him from the building.

White House Down 2.

Then he escapes in his helicopter to Trump Tower with the Nuke Football. Thankfully Jack Bower gets wrestle it from him before he gets to press the button.

Then it all ends up in the Supreme Court...
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Re: USA Elections

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Smudge3920 wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:48 pm Thanks for the clarity on the 22nd amendment... I had not had time to look it up yet... As I said the law does not apply to Trump (in his head)... there has never been a President who refuses to peacefully transition of power and accept the vote...Trump has already said he will ...quote ... they can only win if they cheat :lol: And when asked if he will all he says is "we will see"... You are right we will never agree , as it is difficult to debate with someone who only uses soundbites to make the point...
its even more difficult to debate with someone who dosnt understand the american political structure and would rather take the off hand comments of a man you profess not to trust as fact - what ever supports the narrative though eh. I dont support trump but some of the stuff people say is nonsense and it needs to be called out.
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Re: USA Elections

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Hillary was so far ahead in the polls last time. She even got more total votes. The possibility of vote rigging really worries me. Althouh I don't think people are buying into the fake news releases as much as they did last time around. Saying that I see some badly edited Trump campaign blurbs of Biden saying "I'm going to raise taxes" and obviously cropping the part where he says on the top 1% and corporations. Again, I really don't think as many of the public is buying it like they did last time.

The "Shy" voters really do scare me. I know a lot of people have good reason to vote for Trump, But many of his votes come from closet case racists and xenophobes. That's a harsh classification, but it's more general when you think of all the people that just wish their country could be the way it used to be - more white, less Hispanic. I don't think there are anywhere near as many closet case Biden voters compared to closet case Trump voters
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Re: USA Elections

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WhiteRose wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:43 pm its even more difficult to debate with someone who dosnt understand the american political structure and would rather take the off hand comments of a man you profess not to trust as fact - what ever supports the narrative though eh. I dont support trump but some of the stuff people say is nonsense and it needs to be called out.
Wow... :lol: ok I do not profess to be a political professor in regards to American politics, but I do live next door to America and have all the tv channels...and news channels...and pre Covid I crossed the 49 regualrly, I assure you I state nothing that cannot be verified... He did stack the supreme court the precident re him forcing through the latest republican nomination has not been seen before , in Obama's last year of office a vacancy came up on the supreme court and Obama agreed with the republicans not to appoint anyone and leave it to the next incoming President, that was 10 months prior to the general election. Similar things have happened in the past, where as a President does not appoint in his last year of office, they leave it to the electorate to decide. The supreme court now is 6-3 republican (Trump has appointed 2 of them), it actually did not need an appointment. But Trump stated and I quote " I need this appointment for when the election results go to the supreme court"..Also for overturning Roe v Wade, and medicare (if you knew how overturning those will effect women, you might have another opinion). :lol: ...definatley not corrupt hey.
Trump has also appointed in his first term of office an unprecedented number of republican Federal circuit Justices, 50 in total... and you cannot see an agenda here?
Trump does not make off hand comments. I am sure you will not take my word for it, but research it all, maybe watch CNN, MSn and many other news organisations, and papers... trump only likes one of them FOX news , because they adore him, plus some are on his payroll (Hannity for one fact).
You say I play "whatever supports the narritive"... :roflmao: Well for someone who claims not to support Trump, you do a hell of a job defending and supporting him... :lol:

Oh by the way I left it after your previous post, but obviously you sttill want to debate... regarding the US and dictatorship... no country sets out to elect dictators :lol: ... Elected officials refuse to leave office and use all means to stay in power...

If you read my original post , you should have taken from it, that as a Brit/Eng/yorky/ Loiner who resides in Canada, my concern about Trump is , what effect will he have on the rest of the world should he get a 2nd term... the USA has an enormous amount of influence on the world, more than any one country should have, that kind of power in a man, who openly praises Putin, claims to have put Xi in his place is not something I want for my grandchildren.

Trump and his isolationist policies are a very dangerous thing.
Last edited by Smudge3920 on Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: USA Elections

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Irish Ian wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:22 pm I just have this vision of a swat teams descending on the WH trying remove him from the building.

White House Down 2.

Then he escapes in his helicopter to Trump Tower with the Nuke Football. Thankfully Jack Bower gets wrestle it from him before he gets to press the button.

Then it all ends up in the Supreme Court...
:lol: :lol: :lol: ...Shouldnt larf ... but thats funny
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Re: USA Elections

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andrewjohnsmith wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:03 pm Hillary was so far ahead in the polls last time. She even got more total votes. The possibility of vote rigging really worries me. Althouh I don't think people are buying into the fake news releases as much as they did last time around. Saying that I see some badly edited Trump campaign blurbs of Biden saying "I'm going to raise taxes" and obviously cropping the part where he says on the top 1% and corporations. Again, I really don't think as many of the public is buying it like they did last time.

The "Shy" voters really do scare me. I know a lot of people have good reason to vote for Trump, But many of his votes come from closet case racists and xenophobes. That's a harsh classification, but it's more general when you think of all the people that just wish their country could be the way it used to be - more white, less Hispanic. I don't think there are anywhere near as many closet case Biden voters compared to closet case Trump voters
:tup: well said Andrew...Sad but true methinks.
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Re: USA Elections

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andrewjohnsmith wrote: Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:07 pm It really will affect us in California. More division, culture wars, rioting. Trump will get heavier handed with the police force. His corruption needs to be checked and given another four years he'll basically have free reign. I think our country will be pushed towards anarchy if Trump wins again.

I've said the same. I'd really consider leaving the country if Trump won again. I'm married to an American though. Kind of stuck here.
Yes you are right. I should have put "relatively" as we're solidly democrat and the state administration have done their best to shelter us from the idiotic decisions of Trump's government. Sadly, they can't do much about the culture war he has stoked. :(

Whatever the result next week, I can only see civil unrest. If Trump wins (god forbid), there will be massive demonstrations, and likely rioting again (note to those who wonder: much of the rioting is not by those on the left; a lot of it is either from opportunists using the cover of legitimate protests, or 'black flag' exercises by right wing groups). If Trump loses, I see the right wing groups stoking up trouble, particular at state capitols.
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Re: USA Elections

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Lumiukko wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:24 pm Yes you are right. I should have put "relatively" as we're solidly democrat and the state administration have done their best to shelter us from the idiotic decisions of Trump's government. Sadly, they can't do much about the culture war he has stoked. :(

Whatever the result next week, I can only see civil unrest. If Trump wins (god forbid), there will be massive demonstrations, and likely rioting again (note to those who wonder: much of the rioting is not by those on the left; a lot of it is either from opportunists using the cover of legitimate protests, or 'black flag' exercises by right wing groups). If Trump loses, I see the right wing groups stoking up trouble, particular at state capitols.
So true about the "Black flag exercises" Lumiukko... I have a feeling the FBI are well prepared, along with a few seal teams and Delta force boys suddenly transfered to the FBI... It is scary times to be sure...

Only one thing for it mate send in ...
Arnie.jpg
He will sort it... the former Governer of Calfornia ... :roflmao:
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Re: USA Elections

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WhiteRose wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:54 am Interesting to see the view of americans from California a state almost completely ran by Democrats, a state that accounts for some 35% of the homeless population of america , California if it were an independent nation would be 5th richest in the world yet this apparent socialist utopia does nothing to fix the issue instead implementing many laws that make the situation worse.
Where do you live WhiteRose?

I think you need to understand some simple laws of demography and climate here. California (or Southern California, which accounts for most of the Californian population) for the most part has one of the most agreeable climates in the world. It ALWAYS, no matter what administration we're in, has attracted journeymen, those seeking the gold paved streets, vagrants, hobos, or whatever you wish to name them. The you have the unarguable fact of LA and other cities being hemmed in by geographical boundaries like mountains, ocean, and desert meaning expansion of housing being a major problem. Then let's talk about demography. Cities will always have a higher population of homeless for several reasons, some being density f population in general, being around those with similar problems (herd mentality), opportunity, and so on. Cities are also most likely to be democrat, which is is not cause or effect but mostly coincidence.

Lastly, it's worth pointing out that whilst the former administration tried to start putting right some of the massive failings of the healthcare system, Trump's party neutered as much as they could, and since then Trump has done his utmost to undo as much as he can. The failings of the health system (private= loadsa $$$%) means mental health issues are not addressed by the nation. Mental health issues = the vast reason behind many of the homeless population. Homeless=no money=no treatment for mental health=homeless. Not that hard surely?
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Re: USA Elections

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Smudge3920 wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:35 pm So true about the "Black flag exercises" Lumiukko... I have a feeling the FBI are well prepared, along with a few seal teams and Delta force boys suddenly transfered to the FBI... It is scary times to be sure...

Only one thing for it mate send in ...
Arnie.jpg

He will sort it... the former Governer of Calfornia ... :roflmao:
See, this is where I could get behind Republican if they were more like Schwarzenegger. He was a moderate, economically right but otherwise quite centrist as a Republican governor. I can get behind a lot of what he stands for in that he believes in protecting the environment, the issues we have with climate change, eradicating institutional racism, and so on.
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Re: USA Elections

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I just looked at a video that traced the differing attitudes toward becoming the POTUS
Way back at the birth of the nation it was considered undignified to put yourself forward for president.
But gradually there was pamphlets, front porch speeches, whistle stop tours, and with Ike came the first
TV ad campaigns.

With Kennedy and Reagan it became the cult of celebrity and very soon TV was used to promulgate
the continuous campaign, and today Trump uses social media and TV relentlessly from the moment
of election to the time for re-election to promote his candidacy. The sad state of affairs is that the ads
are no more than character assassinations... are are aimed at appeals to the emotion.
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Re: USA Elections

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Lumiukko wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:49 pm See, this is where I could get behind Republican if they were more like Schwarzenegger. He was a moderate, economically right but otherwise quite centrist as a Republican governor. I can get behind a lot of what he stands for in that he believes in protecting the environment, the issues we have with climate change, eradicating institutional racism, and so on.
I also read somewhere that Donald had pissed him off, and he let him know... :lol:
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Re: USA Elections

Post by Leeds1000 »

Just as a side note about Climate Change. Interesting documentary presented by Michael Moore. It was a eye opener for me. I will post the link if anyone is interested.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE
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Re: USA Elections

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Leeds1000 wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:59 pm Just as a side note about Climate Change. Interesting documentary presented by Michael Moore. It was a eye opener for me. I will post the link if anyone is interested.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zk11vI-7czE
Thanks for the link, will give that a watch when I have more time. Reading the blurb, I can agree that (just like with most things), that any movement, in this case the green movement, can end up itself a sell-out to corporatism and therefore going against what it was originally set up for. However, any small steps the right direction surely has to be a good thing. Anyway back on topic ...
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Re: USA Elections

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rab_rant wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:56 pm I just looked at a video that traced the differing attitudes toward becoming the POTUS
Way back at the birth of the nation it was considered undignified to put yourself forward for president.
But gradually there was pamphlets, front porch speeches, whistle stop tours, and with Ike came the first
TV ad campaigns.

With Kennedy and Reagan it became the cult of celebrity and very soon TV was used to promulgate
the continuous campaign, and today Trump uses social media and TV relentlessly from the moment
of election to the time for re-election to promote his candidacy. The sad state of affairs is that the ads
are no more than character assassinations... are are aimed at appeals to the emotion.
Interesting stuff. I guess the UK have also gone down that route from the Brexit referendum onwards and in particular the last general election.
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