Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion

For everything Leeds United related and everything not - Have your say... the Marching on Together way!
Forum rules
Please be sure you are acquainted with the forum rules outlined within our FAQs.

Help support the site by using our Amazon Affiliate link when making any purchases from Amazon.
fred
Subs Bench
Subs Bench
Posts: 753
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:02 pm
Location: Herisau

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by fred »

Cjay wrote: Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:35 pm Edited.

No interest in responding to anymore riddles.
lol...as soon as you can`t follow up your claims with facts, you puss out.
Cjay
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 28187
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:01 pm

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by Cjay »

fred wrote: Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:47 pm lol...as soon as you can`t follow up your claims with facts, you bluff it out.
You asked who were bargains i answered simple as that :lol:

You argued it was hindsight, i said it wasnt it was paying attention to lower leagues.

I had backed it up, i removed it because cba arguing with you, you have your view i have mine.

Dude i post on other clubs forums for fun, I'm used to backing up my opinions if i can be arsed.
Signed

King Cjay

Fountain of all knowledge and wisdom
fred
Subs Bench
Subs Bench
Posts: 753
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:02 pm
Location: Herisau

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by fred »

Cjay wrote: Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:49 pm You asked who were bargains i answered simple as that :lol:

You argued it was hindsight, i said it wasnt it was paying attention to lower leagues.

I had backed it up, i removed it because cba arguing with you, you have your view i have mine.
By removing it (how do I know you ever posted it?), you have lost honesty in my eyes in regard to being able to answer the question.
Why not demonstrate that you aren`t just talking BS?
I wouldn`t hesitate a second.

You can`t be arsed to show that you are honest and not a BS talker? (After all only you can prove that, I can`t!)
My arse...
Last edited by fred on Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
danhirons
Manager
Manager
Posts: 3476
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:21 pm

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by danhirons »

fred wrote: Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:07 pm Then please explain...such comments are a waste of time.
No, your constant repetition of the same point over and over is.

The whole point of a bargain is that you find a player who is cheap (and affordable) because, for example, other clubs don't recognise the potential that you (or your scouting network do).

Do you think vardy, Kante and mahrez broke Leicester's budget when they signed them? No, because they had a great scouring network who found them said bargains. Talking about not being able to afford bargains is garbage and just doesn't even make sense.
fred
Subs Bench
Subs Bench
Posts: 753
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:02 pm
Location: Herisau

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by fred »

danhirons wrote: Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:56 pm No, your constant repetition of the same point over and over is.

The whole point of a bargain is that you find a player who is cheap (and affordable) because, for example, other clubs don't recognise the potential that you (or your scouting network do).

Do you think vardy, Kante and mahrez broke Leicester's budget when they signed them? No, because they had a great scouring network who found them said bargains. Talking about not being able to afford bargains is garbage and just doesn't even make sense.
Are you really soo ignorant to ignore what my point is time and time again? (No wonder I must repeat it.)

If cjay says we should get bargains, then one must know which players will most probably turn out to be bargains. Easy enough, yeah?
Now, we`ve bought many players from lower or foreign leagues over the last years, most were average, very few turned therefore out to be bargains.
Every club does this, and as most clubs have to little knowledge who will prove to be worth more
than he costs, most potential bargains turn out to be worth what one payed for them.
If it was different and many clubs knew which players are the REAL bargains then the fee for the bargain would
rise and the bargain wouldn`t be a bargain anymore. (The more interest, the higher the fee.)
Comprendre?
And that is: having the ability to know which players will most probably turn out to be bargains, which players not, is one
of the most sought after ability in regard to scouts.
And our ability to find bargains has proved to be poor, assuming we`ve been buying players hoping they will turn
out to be worth far more than we payed for them.

So why say we should buy bargains? (In the real world that is, not just as wishful thinking...yes, it would be
great if we had scouts able to detect bargains.)
Last edited by fred on Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cjay
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 28187
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:01 pm

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by Cjay »

fred wrote: Sun Apr 29, 2018 9:53 pm By removing it (how do I know you ever posted it?), you have lost honesty in my eyes in regard to being able to answer the question.
Why not demonstrate that you aren`t just talking BS?
I wouldn`t hesitate a second.

You can`t be arsed to show that you are honest and not a BS talker? (After all only you can prove that, I can`t!)
My arse...
I clearly posted something as it shows i edited it.

I answered the question then decided in hindsight you would just argue so i wont respond.

Idgaf if you think I'm a bullshit talker, your entitled to your opinion but your opinion isnt going to bother me.

A bargain is a bargain, its not a difficult concept.

Would imagine if you asked 95% of fans with decent lower league knowledge LAST summer was £1mil for Maddison a bargain, was £750k for Dack a bargain, was £2mil for Dean a bargain was Watkins a bargain, then the majority would answer yes.

The money they were available for given the crazy fees around these days were bargains, not in hindsight, all along.

If the club cant spot them in there own country then what chance they got in other countries.
Signed

King Cjay

Fountain of all knowledge and wisdom
fred
Subs Bench
Subs Bench
Posts: 753
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:02 pm
Location: Herisau

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by fred »

Cjay wrote: Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:14 pm I clearly posted something as it shows i edited it.
You can write on word an edit it.
I answered the question then decided in hindsight you would just argue so i wont respond.
How could I argue with things that will prove to be true or not maybe in one or maybe in two years? (The time you allow a bargain to prove he is a bargain.) If you believe that a bargain doesn`t in hindsight prove beyond doubt to have been a bargain, then talking of a bargain as such seems rather senseless. But there will be in hindsight no doubt some kind of consens under experts if a bargain was one or not, and to which degree.
Idgaf if you think I'm a bullshit talker, your entitled to your opinion but your opinion isnt going to bother me.
At least in regard to bargains you talk BS if you don`t give examples. As you haven`t done that to my knowledge, and the reason
you have given for not giving any examples (players you believe will probably turn out to be real, and therefore! potential bargains)
is ridiculous (see above) I must validate your claims as being BS.
A bargain is a bargain, its not a difficult concept.
True, I`ve explained that in sufficient detail.
Would imagine if you asked 95% of fans with decent lower league knowledge LAST summer was £1mil for Maddison a bargain, was £750k for Dack a bargain, was £2mil for Dean a bargain was Watkins a bargain, then the majority would answer yes.
The relevant point being `decent knowledge`. You clearly define such decent knowledge as implying the ability to detect a bargain in beforehand and not in hindsight.
Fact is that there aren`t many scouts with the decent knowledge of the players you mentioned. Otherwise more clubs would have been interested, one of them being us one would think!, and that would have increased the fee without a doubt. I assume that the people with such knowledge are quite few. (Orta being one of them...lol). Even the clubs who bought the mentioned players didn`t necessarily believe they would turn out as good as they prove to be. Most clubs will fail more than they are successful in detecting real bargains. (Best example our club.)
The money they were available for given the crazy fees around these days were bargains, not in hindsight, all along.
The fees were low (in comparison to the real worth of the player) BECAUSE only few clubs were prepared to take the risk and/or not able to pay the demanded wages. (That is: they, if the player was ever looked at, thought that the fee wasn`t worth the risk.)

The price of whatever is dictated by supply and demand. In regard to this a bargain can only be (or remain) a bargain if the supply
is bigger than the demand or in this case more appropiate: if the worth of what you are buying is only `known` by few, but underestimated by many.

If you are prepared to come forward with some players you believe to be bargains, you are verry welcome, but no need for
further eyewash.
User avatar
The Subhuman
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 55501
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2010 10:03 am
Location: God's own county

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by The Subhuman »

SG90 wrote: Sun Apr 29, 2018 7:54 pm Barnsley have earned more points under Morais than Heck has here in the same time. I think that puts any remaining myths and excuses for PH to bed.
I think that has to be so close as to not make a difference...you'd have to factor in injuries/quality of opposition and a couple of other factors too..
"Never debate an idiot, they'll only drag you down to their level and they have the advantage of experience"
fred
Subs Bench
Subs Bench
Posts: 753
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:02 pm
Location: Herisau

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion

Post by fred »

Facts in regard to Leeds ability to detect bargains, and based on this the idea of buying bargains
in the summer as strategy to improve the Team:

17/18:
Sacko, 2 m ...no bargain. (Probably won`t get the fee we payed, paying wages for no gain/return.)
Wiedwald, 500`000...no bargain. (The sooner we can offload him the less wages for no gain/return.)
Alioski, 2 -2.5 m ...too soon to say, but hard to imagine he will be ever worth more than what we payed.
Saiz, 3 m ...to soon to say. Potential to be a bargain.
Ekuban, 500`000...seems to be worth about what we payed at this moment in time.
Cibicki, 1.5 m ...too soon to say. Could prove to be worth what we payed.
Grot, 1.5 m ...opposite of a bargain...waste of money. (May improve, but no likely.)
Roberts, 1.5 m ...time will tell.
De Bock, 1.5 m ..too soon to say. Could be worth the fee.
Forshaw, 4.5 m...should be about worth the fee.

What can one conclude? Only Saiz, Alioski and Forshaw can be named as players who improved the team/squad.(Forshaw was a known quantity, Saiz and Alioski to a lesser extent. Some would argue that Alioski or Saiz improved the team.)
No coincidence their fees were above 2 m. The other players we better shouldn`t have bought. (De Bock and Cibicki had maybe too little chance to prove their worth.)
These dispensable players are `dead wood` on contracts that are a problem in regard to buying new players. (A further problem when buying too many unknown players hoping they will turn out to be bargains.)

As in the seasons prior to 17/18 the scouts were other people, no use examining what the successrate in those seasons was.

All in all: a) Most bargains improve the squad only after a certain time. (Beckford, Snodgrass, Gradel all needed time.)
b) Most Players bought in hope of being bargains turn out to be not good enough to improve the team.

We need players who will improve the squad for next season, not in 2-3 years time.


PS: Who would have thought that Wood would turn out to be such a bargain? Is Roofe a bargain?
Last edited by fred on Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Cjay
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 28187
Joined: Tue Aug 01, 2017 3:01 pm

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by Cjay »

fred wrote: Sun Apr 29, 2018 10:40 pm You can write on word an edit it.
Alright well i didnt lol

How could I argue with things that will prove to be true or not maybe in one or maybe in two years? (The time you allow a bargain to prove he is a bargain.) If you believe that a bargain doesn`t in hindsight prove beyond doubt to have been a bargain, then talking of a bargain as such seems rather senseless. But there will be in hindsight no doubt some kind of consens under experts if a bargain was one or not, and to which degree.


At least in regard to bargains you talk BS if you don`t give examples. As you haven`t done that to my knowledge, and the reason
you have given for not giving any examples (players you believe will probably turn out to be real, and therefore! potential bargains)
is ridiculous (see above) I must validate your claims as being BS.


True, I`ve explained that in sufficient detail.


The relevant point being `decent knowledge`. You clearly define such decent knowledge as implying the ability to detect a bargain in beforehand and not in hindsight.
Fact is that there aren`t many scouts with the decent knowledge of the players you mentioned. Otherwise more clubs would have been interested, one of them being us one would think!, and that would have increased the fee without a doubt. I assume that the people with such knowledge are quite few. (Orta being one of them...lol). Even the clubs who bought the mentioned players didn`t necessarily believe they would turn out as good as they prove to be. Most clubs will fail more than they are successful in detecting real bargains. (Best example our club.)


The fees were low (in comparison to the real worth of the player) BECAUSE only few clubs were prepared to take the risk and/or not able to pay the demanded wages. (That is: they, if the player was ever looked at, thought that the fee wasn`t worth the risk.)

The price of whatever is dictated by supply and demand. In regard to this a bargain can only be (or remain) a bargain if the supply
is bigger than the demand or in this case more appropiate: if the worth of what you are buying is only `known` by few, but underestimated by many.

If you are prepared to come forward with some players you believe to be bargains, you are verry welcome, but no need for
further eyewash.
All i was saying was imo at the time last summer the prices the aforementioned players were available for were bargains.

In hindsight yes they turned out to be, so i was correct.

The price can be dictated by supply and demand but it can also be dictated by contracts and the current market.

Maddisons was dictated by his contract situation as such his price was lowered until such a time he signed a new deal.

Harlee Dean was the same his price was dictated by his contract situation.

The same with Dack (i didnt know this) but it appears once more his contract was running down, consequently his transfer fee reflected this.

For all i know they had release clauses and no matter the competition the fee would have always been the same.

Watkins went for a record fee, there were multiple clubs interested according to reports so his fee reflected this.

We can only speculate on who was after these players but what i feel its fair to summarise is that there prices were not a true reflection of there value, the contract situation of 3 of those players logically lessened the selling clubs bargaining power and its fair to assume had the contract situation not occured all would have gone for higher fees then they did.

In that sense they were "bargains" getting something for less then its market value based on extenuating circumstances and the current transfer trends.

We cant know if there were many clubs interested, thats upto assumption as to who was interested and whether that reflected the fee, the only fact is that the contract situations in 3 of the cases definitely did impact the fee.

If we didnt spot them then that suggests a gap in our scouting network?

I have come forward with players i believe to be bargains, in hindsight now but players i mentioned before, its not like ive just picked players now to put forward lol.

Banged on about Harlee Dean to the point of obsession :lol:
Signed

King Cjay

Fountain of all knowledge and wisdom
User avatar
Gino 1959
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 11810
Joined: Sun Apr 18, 2010 1:31 pm
Location: Na Saoirsí (Baile átha Cliath)

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion

Post by Gino 1959 »

Back to basics and scout in UK/Ireland. More than a few decent players in Scotland and it would do no harm to look over here on both sides of the border. These players would all have the right mentality. More so than some unknown from Serie B or wherever.
Beware the fury of a patient man - John Dryden.
fred
Subs Bench
Subs Bench
Posts: 753
Joined: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:02 pm
Location: Herisau

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by fred »

Cjay wrote: Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:58 pm All i was saying was imo at the time last summer the prices the aforementioned players were available for were bargains.
In hindsight yes they turned out to be, so i was correct.
Maybe you did so. But as you can`t prove that, why don`t you name players who you concider to be possible bargains for this
coming trasfer period?
The price can be dictated by supply and demand but it can also be dictated by contracts and the current market.
Maddisons was dictated by his contract situation as such his price was lowered until such a time he signed a new deal.
Current market? Isn`t that the meaning of `supply and demand`? Don`t get what you tried to explain in regard to Maddison.
The same with Dack (i didnt know this) but it appears once more his contract was running down, consequently his transfer fee reflected this.
This doesn`t imply that more interested clubs wouldn`t have caused the trasfer fee to rise as far as I can make out.
For all i know they had release clauses and no matter the competition the fee would have always been the same.
O.k., but this is certainly not the normal case.

.
We can only speculate on who was after these players but what i feel its fair to summarise is that there prices were not a true reflection of there value, the contract situation of 3 of those players logically lessened the selling clubs bargaining power and its fair to assume had the contract situation not occured all would have gone for higher fees then they did.
That makes these players a special kind of `bargains`. Under regular conditions the fees would have been nearer to their actual worth.
In that sense they were "bargains" getting something for less then its market value based on extenuating circumstances and the current transfer trends
See above answer.
We cant know if there were many clubs interested, thats upto assumption as to who was interested and whether that reflected the fee, the only fact is that the contract situations in 3 of the cases definitely did impact the fee
My point being that under regular circumstances (supply and demand) the number of interested clubs, caused by knowledge who is a bargain in beforehand, would make the fee rise maybe to a level where the label `bargain would be inappropiate.
If we didnt spot them then that suggests a gap in our scouting network?
Well, if our scouting system is also focussed on detecting bargains in lower English leagues then it would seem to be a failure
of the system or relevant people within the scouting system. If one presumes that real bargains can be detected in beforehand by people with the right qualities and knowledge (within an effective system) then that conclusion seems logical.
Maybe they were on our radar, but estimated as players not suited for our team/squad for whatever reasons. (It`s not even clear if TC had a word in transfers or not.) We did seem to be focussed (only?) on continental leagues though.
I have come forward with players i believe to be bargains, in hindsight now but players i mentioned before, its not like ive just picked players now to put forward lol.
O.k., I`ll take your word for it.
Banged on about Harlee Dean to the point of obsession :lol:
Thanks for this answer. Provided some information I was unaware of (and partly didn`t understand).
Still intersted in players on your radar for the coming tranfer window. :twisted:

(Still believe we must buy 3 proven players who will cost serious money and/or demand higher wages if we want to have a real chance of promotion next season. Of course one can say that the aim is to challenge for promotion in two or three seasons, building a team for then, but that wouldn`t be a good move in regard to signing new good players or keeping the good players we have. And the fans wouldn`t take it very good either I guess.)
danhirons
Manager
Manager
Posts: 3476
Joined: Tue Jan 14, 2014 11:21 pm

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion

Post by danhirons »

Clubs like Cardiff and preston have shown you can mount a serious promotion push without breaking the bank.

Preston, in particular, have signed quite a few "bargains" - Jordan hugill they sold for almost 10 mil.

Of course we can't state the next set of bargains - that's why top scouts get paid so much because it's not easy.

We don't have the money to sign four forshaws, so we need to be more sensible with how we spend (which we haven't done this season)
SG90
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 15804
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:29 pm

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by SG90 »

faaip wrote: Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:34 pm I think that has to be so close as to not make a difference...you'd have to factor in injuries/quality of opposition and a couple of other factors too..
We've played the same teams for God's sake. Every team has injuries and suspensions. Who are these players with injuries I keep hearing we're missing?
SG90
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 15804
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:29 pm

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion

Post by SG90 »

danhirons wrote: Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:17 am Clubs like Cardiff and preston have shown you can mount a serious promotion push without breaking the bank.

Preston, in particular, have signed quite a few "bargains" - Jordan hugill they sold for almost 10 mil.

Of course we can't state the next set of bargains - that's why top scouts get paid so much because it's not easy.

We don't have the money to sign four forshaws, so we need to be more sensible with how we spend (which we haven't done this season)
We'll never get promoted doing it on the cheap and from the lower leagues, we need players who can handle the pressure. Hence why players like Hernandez, Jansson, Saiz, Forshaw have stood out. They dropped down to come here.
gessa
Guest
Guest

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by gessa »

radebe88 wrote: Sun Apr 29, 2018 11:10 pm Hi CJAY

I think you open a great debate and I value your contribution to the forum.

Discussing “bargains” I have my own theory. I think our club is very unique in the this division. Maddison, Dack, Dean. Watkins etc were all signed by clubs that I consider smaller than us, with different expectations. I think if any of those clubs had signed Roofe then he also would be considered a success and a bargain.

If you look at what wolves have done, they certainly haven’t gone for bargains. However I know this is quite unrealistic. I would rather however attempt to sign established championship players or fringe players from the premier league. Bartley, Charlie Adam... I would even take Peter Crouch for a season as back up to another striker.

Hope my theory above was as clear written down as it was in my head :duno:
:tup:

Now that's how to debate.
User avatar
1964white
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 127690
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2010 8:46 am
Twitter: @1964white

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by 1964white »

SG90 wrote: Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:53 am We've played the same teams for God's sake. Every team has injuries and suspensions. Who are these players with injuries I keep hearing we're missing?
Ayling
Forshaw
Cooper
Dallas
De Bock
Shaughnessy
Roberts
plus Berardi suspended

Not a fan of all of them but they have missed plenty of games between them

We've really missed Ayling & Forshaw
SG90
Superstar
Superstar
Posts: 15804
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2012 11:29 pm

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by SG90 »

1964white wrote: Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:51 am Ayling
Forshaw
Cooper
Dallas
De Bock
Shaughnessy
Roberts
plus Berardi suspended

Not a fan of all of them but they have missed plenty of games between them

We've really missed Ayling & Forshaw
Forshaw has been on the bench the last couple of games. How many of those players have been poor when they've played this season?
User avatar
1964white
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 127690
Joined: Tue Mar 30, 2010 8:46 am
Twitter: @1964white

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by 1964white »

SG90 wrote: Mon Apr 30, 2018 9:58 am Forshaw has been on the bench the last couple of games. How many of those players have been poor when they've played this season?
Not many, you could say that about the majority of the players that started at Norwich

Still missing an experienced midfielder who when fit is better than Vieira & Philips. Next season's captain I suspect

Poor poor squad of misfits
User avatar
dezzy
Manager
Manager
Posts: 4249
Joined: Sun May 30, 2010 5:46 pm
Location: Cork Ireland

Re: Summer Transfers and Squad Discussion (Kyle Bartley exclusive )

Post by dezzy »

1964white wrote: Mon Apr 30, 2018 10:05 am Not many, you could say that about the majority of the players that started at Norwich

Still missing an experienced midfielder who when fit is better than Vieira & Philips. Next season's captain I suspect

Poor poor squad of misfits
All those players being out, didn’t allow us to pick a consistent 11, our back for chopped and changed, as you say, your not a fan of some of the above players, but consistency in team selection allows development and improvement.
As for bargains, I’m september, we had bargains, now in April we don’t, all down to interpretation, but right now it looks like we were doing our shopping in one of those dodgy shops you find in resorts in Spain, look great but break after a few weeks.
I realised I was dyslexic when I went to a toga party dressed as a goat..
Post Reply