Leeds Expected Goals

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Cjay
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Leeds Expected Goals

Post by Cjay »

Finally i have found a website where you can find the expected goals for us, id found it before actually but i wasnt looking at the right place.

So a quick explanation.

Each chance is given a percentage based on how likely it is that it should be scored, based on various things, the type of strike, position of strike, way it was created etc etc.

The percentages are given in decimals, so 0.1 is 10% 0.3 is 30% and so on.

And then finally for each match they work out how many goals a team would have been expected to score.

So 2.5 goals would be 2 goals with a 50% chance of scoring a 3rd (least i think thats how that works).

So i started and included our first defeat, that was Birmingham 2-1 at Elland Road.

An interesting game because it did show a problem that i wasnt even going to check, goals conceded.

The expected goals against Birmingham were Leeds 1.07 vs Birmingham 0.17. . .the actual score was Leeds 1-2 Birmingham

So you can see the problem, we scored what we were expected , although we had a lot of shots, they were difficult ( brings into question our shot selection, when its better to keep the ball and shoot) but anyways, we shouldn't have conceded, 17% chance for Birmingham to score 1 goal, they got 2.

Another game we should have won was Wednesday, though not as clearly as i thought we should have scored 1 goal with a 65% chance of a 2nd, Wednesday had a 45% chance of scoring one overall, they did.

There are certain games that should have been closer then they were.

4-1 to WBA, expected goals were WBA 1.6 Leeds 0.74.

Forest 4-2 . .Expected goals Forest 1.63 Leeds 1.54

Hull 2-0 Leeds . . .Hull 1.73 Leeds 1.39

In total though there is an issue, we have scored less then expected, not massively less, we have scored 34 goals, we should have scored 38 in our last 24 games.

4 goals isnt a huge huge number, but when you think of games like Wednesday, like Birmingham, or like the 2-1 defeat to Blackburn, 1-1 was the expected score with us most likely to win, 4 goals is worth a lot of points.

Another game recently we should have won was Boro, 1-1 the score, expected goals was Boro 1.57 Leeds 2.41, these little missed goals add up in points terms, Wednesday and the 2 Boro games thats 6 points dropped, Birmingham another 3 points, it adds up.

Interestingly though, its our conceding of soft goals that has probably cost us the most points, we have an expected conceded goals over the last 24 games of 22 goals, we actually conceded 29 goals.

In the same way we should have outscored Birmingham, we shouldn't have conceded at all, same as Wednesday, same as the first game against Forest, 1-1 at Elland Road, we had an expected goals of 1.47 they had 0.14.

It was interesting this, because we all thought we werent scoring as many as we should and were conceding to many, and we were right, in goal difference terms we should have another 11+

In points terms its difficult, there are certain games where we have been a bit fortunate according to the expected goals, but not many tbf and not massively in terms of us scoring 2 and having a 10% chance of one, its very close really, i think all in all we should probably be between 6-10 points better off.

Table would look much better even at the bottom end of that, 67 points, game in hand over our 2 nearest rivals and the best goal difference by 2.
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

Post by weasel »

Excellent again Cjay and I think the only game where it was a 'wonder' strike or fluke was the Sheff Wed game. Apart from that a huge reason we conceded more than we should was keeper error - and that isn't me having a go at BPF as he shouldn't have been thrust straight in so was bound to make mistakes. Hopefully we even out the stats and blow every f*cker away for the rest of the season.
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

Post by YorkshireSquare »

Expected Goals is a new stat to me this season.

Have you looked into it much for other teams? Does it stand up as an accurate measure?
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

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and how do you account for unexpected goals ...4-11 should haves sounds reasonable to me in fact seems extremely low over 30 odd games. Roofe's back to goal flick turn move and shot must be an unexpected goal..if you stop the action just before he gets the ball his odds of scoring must be small. But I doubt it's factored into these stats
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

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YorkshireSquare wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:45 pm Expected Goals is a new stat to me this season.

Have you looked into it much for other teams? Does it stand up as an accurate measure?
I suppose nothing is truly accurate, not totally, but football teams use Expected goals as a way to judge performance, we know that, so if its good enough for the football managers to take note of then its probably good enough for us?

I did actually work Norwich out, same thing, last 24 games

Expected goals scored 41 . . total goals scored is 49.

Norwich expected conceded is 25.5 they have actually conceded 27.
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

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faaip wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:14 pm and how do you account for unexpected goals ...4-11 should haves sounds reasonable to me in fact seems extremely low over 30 odd games. Roofe's back to goal flick turn move and shot must be an unexpected goal..if you stop the action just before he gets the ball his odds of scoring must be small. But I doubt it's factored into these stats
They rank them very low, so like Adam Reaches goal for Wednesday was a wonder goal so that only had a 3% chance of going in.

If you can remember what game that was i can check.

Xg is fairly new, but it is widely used by even professional clubs, its pretty good.

I found it, 41% chance of going in.
Last edited by Cjay on Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

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weasel wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 3:35 pm Excellent again Cjay and I think the only game where it was a 'wonder' strike or fluke was the Sheff Wed game. Apart from that a huge reason we conceded more than we should was keeper error - and that isn't me having a go at BPF as he shouldn't have been thrust straight in so was bound to make mistakes. Hopefully we even out the stats and blow every f*cker away for the rest of the season.
Yeah it seems that BPF was dropping us points, shame for him because he shouldnt have been there, but he was losing us points unfortunately and we werent as clinical as we could have been, Norwich showed that far exceeding there expected goals tally.

We need to start blowing teams away our goal difference is suffering.
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

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Cjay wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:22 pm They rank them very low, so like Adam Reaches goal for Wednesday was a wonder goal so that only had a 3% chance of going in.

If you can remember what game that was i can check.

Xg is fairly new, but it is widely used by even professional clubs, its pretty good.

I found it, 41% chance of going in.
So it's subjective. I'd disagree with the that chance percentage of Roofe scoring from there. to start with.
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

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faaip wrote: Thu Feb 21, 2019 5:33 pm So it's subjective. I'd disagree with the that chance percentage of Roofe scoring from there. to start with.
Its not really subjective, its been worked out by Opta, its there thing, you dont like stats though so youd never agree which is fair enough.

Professional clubs use it to measure there performance, there must be something in it or they wouldnt bother.

Why? the angle was decent, he had no players around him, if you take out the bit before it wasnt a difficult chance at all, a 1v1 with the keeper in the end, but the less then 50% chance of scoring reflects the build up and the weaker foot, id say thats pretty fair.
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

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Covered by two guys back to goal, a third very close. One touch took out 2 players and left foot finish ...class finish from a class striker.
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

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It is subjective but I would suggest a lot better than classing all chances as the same. I doubt they can fully factor in how good the keeper is at saving 1v1s , whether the keeper's starting position was right etc in comparison with a keeper in a similar game. Also stuff like how rusty the striker is (for example Bamford when he missed v Boro in what I presume was a high percentage opportunity when he missed an open goal when it came back off the post from PJ's header).

So many variables but I think definitely the most accurate at present in terms of defining chances. They did something a couple of years or so ago where the Italian champions started the season really poorly, results wise, but the expected goals was loads higher than the actual goals they had scored. The manager was a believer in these stats and basically didn't panic and they then went on a great run and retained the title comfortably with their goals scored being much more in line with the expected goals.
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

Post by paddy parrott »

Hoping that Leeds United too can go on and improve their goals for aswell now until end of season Weasel .
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

Post by Cjay »

YorkshireSquare wrote: Wed Mar 06, 2019 1:42 pm Might be of interest Cjay...



https://twitter.com/SwansAnalytics/stat ... 9321395201
It would :)

But i dont understand it :duno:
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

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Cjay wrote: Wed Mar 06, 2019 2:14 pm It would :)

But i dont understand it :duno:

Gives the ranking for each team for the stats at the top.

We are top in average possession, average passes attempted, average shots etc.

In fact we are in the top 2 for every stats with the exception of;

4th - Goals
15th - Shots per goal
14th - Shots on target per goal
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

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YorkshireSquare wrote: Wed Mar 06, 2019 2:35 pm Gives the ranking for each team for the stats at the top.

We are top in average possession, average passes attempted, average shots etc.

In fact we are in the top 2 for every stats with the exception of;

4th - Goals
15th - Shots per goal
14th - Shots on target per goal
Oh i see, its a ranking system, makes sense now, thanks.
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

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So as expected we are poor at chance conversion . . . 2nd for big chances per game . . 2nd for xG . . .but 10th for shots per goal and 4th i think for goals.
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

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Had a peek at the Championship xG table.

What the table would look like if teams performed as their xG data expected.

A few titbits.

We would be 1st.
Sheffield United would be 2nd
Norwich would be 3rd.

This isnt a surprise imo, Norwich have been so clinical and us and Blades havent.

Things would look a bit different more surprising elsewhere.

WBA would be 6th, Bristol City 7th, Boro 4th.

Franks Derby would be 17th (Frank must know this as analysts use xG a lot these days).

Forest would be 20th.

Swansea, QPR and Brentford would all be top 10.

Millwall and Reading would be midtable, 13th and 12th.
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

Post by weasel »

Interesting about QPR. Probably only game they took their chance was against us.
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Re: Leeds Expected Goals

Post by Sara »

Forest are cack. Forest fan in the pub tonight, and he's already fed up of M O'N. I suspect he's pretty representative. They're billing their match against Boro as El Jurassico, the clash of the dinosaurs.
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