Gambling..........

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John in Louisiana
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Gambling..........

Post by John in Louisiana » Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:04 pm

Couldn't post a response to Shields' great post on gambling, so I started a new thread........

I'm a veteran of many years of working in a Vegas casino, and I spent many an hour discussing gaming - both table games and sports betting - with casino executives, including Johnny Avello, whose point spreads were for many years the standard for Las Vegas sports betting (he now works for Draft Kings).

If you are serious about wanting to consistently make money gambling, stick to sports betting. Do not expect to make money betting on table games in the casino. While it is possible to turn the odds in your favor at the blackjack table by counting cards, most casinos now place at least four decks in each shoe and shuffle after two decks have been played, making card counting very difficult. Further, i f the pit bosses believe you are counting cards you will be asked politely, but firmly, to leave the casino. The craps table is the best place for getting the odds nearest to being in your favor, but believe me, if the odds were in your favor, the casino wouldn't be doing it.

As for sports betting, the casino doesn't particularly care whether individual bettors make money. All they care about is getting equal amounts of money to fall on both sides of a bet. When that happens, the house rakes the vig. The sports book operators do not want to get into a battle of wits with you or any single bettor. They want the sure money the vig represents. They are not in the business of gambling with their money; that's the customers' thing.

Sports betting is the only type of betting I would ever consider over the internet. Casino games administered electronically are far too easy to rig. Even the most honest of them are not at all random.

If you want to make money consistently on gambling, do as Shields suggests: study sports betting intently and make your picks dispassionately. Remember: the point spread is set where the odds maker thinks it will attract equal amounts on both sides, not as a prediction of how the odds maker thinks the game will actually play out. You always have to give an extra point or two, for instance, if you want to bet on the Dallas Cowboys here in the US as they are quite popular with the public. There are plenty of Cowboy fans out there who will bet on them no matter what. The point spread is set with that in mind.

That being said, only a very few people ever make money consistently betting on sports, and the amount of work required to do so can make it feel more like a job than like fun. My best advice: bet only what you can afford to lose and bet only for fun.

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Re: Gambling..........

Post by Norm » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:17 am

That's some good advice John, although normally I prefer not to gamble - I don't consider myself proficient in the art and generally consider myself lucky to retain the money I've got without risking it even on sports betting. Call me super-wussy if you want.

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Re: Gambling..........

Post by 1964white » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:53 am

I worked in the betting industry for nearly four years

I witnessed family blokes blowing their whole monthly salary in less than an hour :shock:

All big bettors were logged, i can't recall anyone making a profit

My advice is to keep your hard earned money in your pockets......if you enjoy a dabble, only bet what you can afford to lose

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Re: Gambling..........

Post by rab_rant » Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:27 am

I think that for many people gambling and apophenia are closely related.
Apophenia is seeing patterns in unrelated events and ascribing significance to them.
BB will see a horse with the name Harry in it, and she ascribes this to a pleasant experience
that she had with a friend from Australia... the horse wins and this reinforces the idea that
she should follow her instincts and intuition rather than form.

Here is my story. I am in the betting shop losing every race and I go to the man behind the
counter and say, come on now give me a winner. He tells me a horse and I back it, and it wins.
I thank him and he says "You're riding with the King" I ask him what do you mean and
he points to his name badge Alan King

It is the last race of the day at Plumpton, and the race is a maiden. I look at the form.
there is none, many of the horses have never run before. I look for special jockey bookings
and all the riders are amateurs. It is a huge field and the prices are big. I look for the trainers
and there it is a trainer called A. King... and what did the desk clerk just say.
You're riding with the King

I decided to have a 5 pound each way bet on Mr A. King's horse, and I get the best price on it of 33/1
It romps home in first place. I collect my winning and give the clerk behind the desk a tenner to
get himself a pint or two.

There is no rhyme or reason as to why any of that makes sense and I think that many people
when they bet it is quite irrational and is based on some form of apophenia.
Scottish Steel and Irish Fire that's the weapon I desire.

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Re: Gambling..........

Post by weasel » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:50 am

John in Louisiana wrote:
Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:04 pm
That being said, only a very few people ever make money consistently betting on sports, and the amount of work required to do so can make it feel more like a job than like fun. My best advice: bet only what you can afford to lose and bet only for fun.
I have been making my living out of Sports Betting for about 12 years now and it isn't fun it is a job. When people ask me what I do for a living I dread telling them as they think it is going to glamourous but the reality is I spend as much time doing it as I would a normal job, probably longer at times, and am sat in front of 2 computers in what is a very boring job.

I have done it many different ways over the years always trying to get ahead or stay ahead. I started off doing it using a 'system' the ex missus picked up from the internet and needless to say if anyone is selling a system it is because it doesn't work and the only person making money are the people selling the systems either via the amount they charge or because you click on their links to bookies and they make affiliate bonuses. I also suspect many of these 'systems' are actually put out there by bookmakers as they know that whilst you may make money short term you will eventually lose a lot of money. People will either start doing a system like this and do small stakes originally and either of 2 things will happen a) they will make a loss and give up or b) they will make money and because they are doing so well they will then gamble for bigger amounts and when they hit the losing run will lose a lot of money. 'But it was working,' they will say but as with anything a winning run can quickly be followed by a losing run and even if say you were in a casino and playing roulette and going black or red every time, and doubling your stake if you lost, you run out of money very quickly if you lose 5 or 10 times in a row when you are doubling up. Needless to say when I followed the 'system' the bookies never cut my limits.

Because I am good at maths though I had spotted certain things, being stuck in front of a computer betting every day, and changed what I did to a point where I was making risk free money (having been about £10k down after a year following the 'system'), well as risk free as you can get barring human error. However the bookies very quickly cut my limits to where the maximum I could win would usually be capped at £50, never going to be able to make a living like that so I continually re-invented what I was doing. At one point I actually did it purely as gambling and had 2 or 3 months where I was making £30k to £40k a month, crikey I thought another year and I can retire. Needless to say I upped the amount I gambled and lost £100k in a month. I carried on this way for a couple of years and there were ridiculous highs and lows, just after Wayne Rooney got his big pay rise at Man U I actually earnt more than him one afternoon when I worked out how much I had earnt per minute. I had days where I made in excess of £20k and would think nothing of losing £5k in a day. The missus had given up work, we'd bought a couple of horses (not racehorses) and we even moved to Spain and bought a house outright (house prices being way cheaper over there). The trouble though was that the tide was turning and I was having more down months than up months and the money I had was quickly disappearing. It was a rollercoaster ride but as it was my only source of income I took the decision to go back to my safer way of earning money through betting, no longer going to be making huge amounts but at least every month would be profitable.

So as you say it is a job, and same as many jobs it is fairly boring. If I could have done it alongside a normal job I would have made a lot of money out of it but because it has been my job I have simply made a decent wage over the years, probably a bit better than what I would have earnt normally but not enough for early retirement!!!

Just don't ask me for a tip though as horse racing is so corrupt. If I could travel back in time armed with the results of races and put a really big bet on some of the horses that I knew had actually won I reckon the results would change in a lot of the races.
Last edited by weasel on Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gambling..........

Post by weasel » Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:53 am

rab_rant wrote:
Mon Oct 15, 2018 7:27 am
I think that for many people gambling and apophenia are closely related.
Apophenia is seeing patterns in unrelated events and ascribing significance to them.
BB will see a horse with the name Harry in it, and she ascribes this to a pleasant experience
that she had with a friend from Australia... the horse wins and this reinforces the idea that
she should follow her instincts and intuition rather than form.

Here is my story. I am in the betting shop losing every race and I go to the man behind the
counter and say, come on now give me a winner. He tells me a horse and I back it, and it wins.
I thank him and he says "You're riding with the King" I ask him what do you mean and
he points to his name badge Alan King

It is the last race of the day at Plumpton, and the race is a maiden. I look at the form.
there is none, many of the horses have never run before. I look for special jockey bookings
and all the riders are amateurs. It is a huge field and the prices are big. I look for the trainers
and there it is a trainer called A. King... and what did the desk clerk just say.
You're riding with the King

I decided to have a 5 pound each way bet on Mr A. King's horse, and I get the best price on it of 33/1
It romps home in first place. I collect my winning and give the clerk behind the desk a tenner to
get himself a pint or two.

There is no rhyme or reason as to why any of that makes sense and I think that many people
when they bet it is quite irrational and is based on some form of apophenia.
I once bet on a horse called Penalty Kick, running at Nottingham (Notts) at odds of 5-1 simply because the lad taking penalty kicks for my Sunday team was called Lee Knott and 5 is the number I always wear. Needless to say it won.
Senor El Weasel

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Re: Gambling..........

Post by Gandalf » Mon Oct 15, 2018 1:04 pm

I have a gamble every day, almost solely on horse racing, but occasionally I will have an accumulator on the football. As people have said, only gamble what you can afford to lose, and if you keep losing, stop. My stakes are low (I learnt very early on that high stakes can bankrupt you very quickly) as long losing runs (and you will definitely have them) can be managed on small stakes. So £5 total on weekdays, and £10 on Saturdays are my limit. This philosophy has turned my original £30 investment into just under £3K. I have only once removed any money from my online betting accounts, and that was when a £5 ew gamble on Aurora's Encore in the 2013 Grand National came in at 100/1. I removed most of the £630 winnings to pay for flights to Spain for a family holiday.

I have been doing this for 10 years, with, initially, very little knowledge of horse racing, and the one thing i can guarantee is that there is no such thing as a cast iron certainty (unless the horse is called Frankel.)
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Re: Gambling..........

Post by rich_leeds64 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:00 pm

I have £5 a week during the football season on a 5 team accumulator. I had my first win of the season last week when all my selections were in the National League, Harrogate, Salford, Wrexham , Orient and Hartlepool £180.05. This will just about cover my seasons betting, so another decent win and I’m in profit.
Last season I won £647.30 in total so roughly a £400 profit.

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Re: Gambling..........

Post by leic white 63 » Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:27 pm

usually have a few quid accumulator on the football and occasionally i have a small bet on the nags especially over the jumps . its just a bit of fun for me . a mugs game if taken seriously.

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Re: Gambling..........

Post by Dalton » Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:27 pm

I tested a system of my own in roulette using Red hedged with the 2-1 table as a hedge. Basically you either won 2-1, evens, broke even or lost, But only 6-8 out of 36 were my "losing numbers" . Was curious, invested £100, made up to £1200 although took a bit of time then the computer decided that was enough and dealt me 9 consecutive black and ALL on my 6-8 black numbers that lose for me.
Havent had a bet since!
My my my, such a lot of guns around town and so few brains

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Re: Gambling..........

Post by whiteswan » Mon Oct 15, 2018 3:13 pm

Only really had one proper bet and that was because someone we knew, knew someone who knew someone ( and so on) who worked at a trainers yard. The tip was for a horse called 'Far Ahead' and was running in the York Ebor. I rang Mr Swan at work and asked what he thought. Typically of him he looked up the trainers, jockeys and horses history and suggested we place a £5 bet each at something like 30-1....we both won £90 each :) ....never had a bet since.
I have to say that all the betting adverts on telly get right on my chimes :x

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Re: Gambling..........

Post by rab_rant » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:44 pm

Maths and gambling.
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Re: Gambling..........

Post by Norm » Fri Oct 19, 2018 3:13 am

Very interesting Rab - thanks

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Re: Gambling..........

Post by lufc1304 » Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:17 am

Like Gandi, I have a bet most days, usually horses but sometimes on the dogs and football as well. Small stakes, sometimes as little as a quid if I'm doing a high odds acca, for example, and I never chase losses. Bet what you can afford to lose and it is a bit of fun that adds an extra element to watching sport. I also do some matched betting using the Profit Squad system that Adam posted about on here a couple of years ago. It's paid for a few holidays, but it can feel like work when you have multiple bookie accounts open on your pc, plus an exchange to lay off the bets. But it is a almost risk-free way to make some cash.
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